Cyclohexanone: Market Review and prospect in the first quarter

In the first quarter, the cyclohexanone market rose first and then fell, and then fluctuated in a narrow range. It is mainly affected by the fluctuation of cost side and the restriction of downstream demand. Let's analyze it in detail below.

In January, cyclohexanone market negotiation went up. On the one hand, the pure benzene market fluctuated upward, and the main listing price was adjusted for many times. By the end of the month, it was increased by 400 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. The cost of cyclohexanone was strongly pushed up, and cyclohexanone followed suit; On the other hand, cyclohexanone starts at a low level and the spot is tight. As the Spring Festival approaches, the storage demand in the downstream market and the on-site supply and demand are tight, supporting the rise of market prices.

In February, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose first and then fell, and stopped falling and rebounded at the end of the month. In the first half of the month, the cyclohexanone market went up in a wide range and operated at a high price. During the Spring Festival, the crude oil and pure benzene market was strong, and the cyclohexanone market rose broadly driven by the strong rise of the cost side. However, with the decline of the pure benzene market and the slow follow-up of the downstream market, the on-site trading was weak, and the offer was temporarily stable. In the second half of the month, the cost side support was stable, but the chemical fiber sheet was insufficient to support the market. The downstream market resisted high priced raw materials, and the on-site trading was cold. Cyclohexanone manufacturers and traders made more profits to ship, and the offer was lower. At the end of the month, with the low price of cyclohexanone, bargain hunting in the downstream market and strengthened cost side support, the cyclohexanone market stopped falling and rebounded.

In March, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to rise and fluctuated. In the first half of the month, the market focus of cyclohexanone rose. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene followed higher, and the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised for many times. Under the strong support of the cost side, the offer of cyclohexanone market rose, but the downstream market followed up cautiously, the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, and the on-site trading was flat, limiting the upward range of cyclohexanone. In the second half of the month, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene rebounded and fluctuated after falling, and the cyclohexanone market passively followed the fluctuation. Under the influence of the domestic epidemic, the transportation was difficult, the procurement in the downstream market was cautious, the trading of cyclohexanone in the market was weak, and the actual order fell at the end of the month.

In the future, there are downside risks in crude oil, pure benzene may weaken, the cost side support of cyclohexanone may be weak, and the impact of the epidemic still exists, the transportation is limited, the on-site supply is large and the demand is light. It is expected that the cyclohexanone market may be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term, but there is a certain downside space. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the dynamic changes of cost and devices.