Chemical weekly up and down brief analysis

Chemical weekly up and down brief analysis (20230105-0112): 

repair rebound oscillation volatility increased

 This week, most of the chemical market rose, but the trend is still under pressure, international crude oil futures prices back below $ 80 per barrel, last month the Federal Reserve announced that the federal benchmark interest rate range up 50 basis points, the follow-up is still expected to raise interest rates. And concerns about the state of the global economy is the main reason why commodities have struggled to rebound recently. Coupled with the approaching Chinese Spring Festival holiday, supply and demand is expected to gradually weaken, the market structural repair rebound, the overall trend is still under pressure finishing.

ChemNetChemNet monitored 64 important chemical products, including 35 up varieties, accounting for about 54.69%; 15 down varieties, accounting for about 23.44%, flat 14, accounting for about 21.88%. Up products dichloromethane (↑6.38%), DMC (↑5.38%), caprolactam (↑5.26%), where the top three declining products are chloroacetic acid (↓5.71%), isopropyl alcohol (↓4.12%), o-benzene (↓3.85%).

Up list.

Dichloromethane: this cycle, the domestic dichloromethane market shocks higher, Shandong market low end prices higher than last week by 6.38%. After a rebound in the market in the previous period, the market narrow range finishing mainly from the end of last week to the beginning of this week, the follow-up, manufacturers do not have a high inventory, and shipments are still available, individual enterprises have foreign trade orders, the field of downstream users before the Spring Festival focused on stockpiling, the market trading atmosphere improved, the enterprise offer continued to increase. As of Thursday closing, Shandong region at 2500 yuan / ton, East China at 2430-2550 yuan / ton, South China (bulk water) at about 2800 yuan / ton.

DMC: The domestic dimethyl carbonate market stabilized this week, with prices rising slightly at the beginning of the week, driven by the bidding of Lihua Yi. The raw material end of the PO strong oscillation operation, the last two days the enterprise shipments smoothly, inventory temporarily no pressure, the device in the region more stable operation. Market pressure under the new device is not put into production news. Downstream lithium industry demand is weak, near the end of the year downstream manufacturers demand is still available. After the New Year's Day holiday, DMC manufacturers have more parking, this week, fewer manufacturers to resume normal operation of the device. Near the Spring Festival holiday, parking manufacturers continue to increase, the supply continues to shrink. Short-term view, the main business shipments smoothly, the supply of reduced circumstances, the market may have stabilized the intention to rebound, the market is expected to be stable after the year or a strong shock.

Caprolactam: This period, the domestic caprolactam market prices moderate price, the offer rose rebound. On the one hand, by the raw material pure benzene price rebound in the shock, East China pure benzene to 6850 near the cost side support gradually strengthened, manufacturers settlement and listing price up, boosting the spot trend, the current downstream demand for procurement, polymerization start for the time being stable, slicing market also pulled up, the short term view of caprolactam market by the cost and demand support, the price ring than last week's market price center of gravity up, is expected to follow the short-term market prices Cost up, downstream on-demand procurement to follow up, follow up enthusiasm has weakened, mostly contract orders, some businessmen wait and see sentiment thickened, is expected to continue upward also under pressure.

Decline list

Isopropyl alcohol: This week, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market center of gravity is weak. As of January 12, East China isopropyl alcohol market mainstream offer at 6400 yuan / ton, compared with last week's price fell 275 yuan / ton. During the week, the market atmosphere performance is light, downstream inquiries are not high enthusiasm, operators are cautious wait-and-see attitude, although the raw material acetone market narrow rebound, but limited support for the isopropyl alcohol market, downstream demand is still weak, the terminal enterprises cautious replenishment, a comprehensive view, the field trading performance is cold, downstream demand is difficult to boost, the market negotiation center of gravity is lower.

Neighboring benzene: This week, Sinopec lowered 300 yuan to implement 7,500 yuan/tonne of neighboring benzene, the main factors involved in the lowering of neighboring benzene are as follows. First of all, the main downstream o-phthalic anhydride cost pressure is high, the turbulence near the cost line, profit acquisition is blocked, o-phthalic benzene down for o-phthalic anhydride industry concessions; Secondly, the previous o-phthalic anhydride weak, o-phthalic benzene trend is more stable, this decline belongs to the process of compensatory decline, so the impact on o-phthalic anhydride is limited. Near the Chinese New Year holiday, the terminal basically into the state of vacation, the o-phthalic products continue to slow down, downstream plasticizers, o-phthalic anhydride although the price is firm, but the o-phthalic demand is flat, the basic just demand, is expected to later market will still show the supply and demand for two light, temporary stalemate situation.

Ethylene oxide: The domestic ethylene oxide market continued its downward trend this week. Upstream Asian ethylene market is still weak, Asian ethylene field devices still maintain low load operation, downstream multi-product demand is weak, the overall supply and demand performance is poor. The demand in the field is general, the trading performance is light, the consumption of ethylene under the long-term loss of derivatives is limited, and the order follow-up needs to be improved; ethylene oxide producers' shipments are under pressure, and then the price is reduced, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the field is relatively strong. Downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducing agent monomer factories mostly maintain low load production, with limited demand support, and the terminal market continues to be weak. In the future, it is expected that the domestic ethylene oxide market is mainly consolidating.

CU view.

In addition to medium and long-term factors, there is also a short term negative impact on oil prices. The recent winter storms hit the U.S., resulting in the cancellation of flights by local airlines on a large scale, reducing the demand for aviation fuel; at the same time, the snowstorms in many places have reduced the crude oil processing capacity in North America, which also depressed crude oil prices, and the recent international oil prices have been rangebound after continuous downward movement. Overseas, even if the U.S. economy avoids recession in 2023, U.S. consumers and investors may face a serious economic slowdown, which slowdown will probably not ease until 2024. From the current point of view, crude oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, short-term after continuous weakness or rebound, the cost of petrochemical products support force exists, the terminal side, the domestic policy optimization of the epidemic, logistics, consumer confidence has been restored, the release of macro-positive to the subsequent infrastructure and real estate industry favorable to move, but the short-term terminal demand in the Spring Festival off-season or difficult to show a significant turnaround, but the follow-up has restored confidence for The domestic economy in the first quarter steady rebound is expected to strengthen.