Caprolactam: the market has no favorable support, and the spot price is weak

1、 Price trend

As of February 18, the caprolactam solid market in East China market continued to follow the consolidation of liquid prices.

2、 Market analysis last week

Last week, the domestic caprolactam market price was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the relatively strong cost side, the listing price of caprolactam factory increased, but the spot market was restricted by supply pressure, and the price decreased slightly. In the middle of the week, the on-site supply was relatively abundant, the downstream slicing price was under great sales pressure, the price decreased, the raw material procurement of polymerization plants was cautious, and some caprolactam plants had inventory pressure, so they reduced the price for sales, and the spot market price decreased with the decline. After the week, the cost side support continued to weaken, coupled with the weak supply and demand side of the floor, light downstream demand and bearish sentiment, the traders' offer continued to be weak.

3、 Market forecast for this week

Supply forecast: 100000 t / a of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical plant and 200000 t / a of Shandong Haili plant will be shut down; On February 11, the load of 300000 t / a caprolactam unit in Dongming Park of Xuyang group decreased to 60%; The 300000 t / a unit of Lunan Chemical began to reduce the load to 60% last week, and the maintenance plan was postponed; Inner Mongolia Qinghua 100000 t / a plant is planned to restart at the end of this month; The 140000 T / a plant in sanning, Hubei Province was shut down for 5-7 days on February 14. The overall supply is still sufficient this week, especially in the northern spot market.

Demand forecast: the rhythm of terminal resumption is slow, the sales of PA6 polymerization plant's own chips are under pressure, the price of conventional spinning chips has decreased, and the raw material procurement of polymerization plant is cautious. The overall demand follow-up is less than expected, and the transmission is expected to be slow this week.

Cost forecast: there is still room for crude oil to fall, the trend of international pure benzene market continues to differentiate, the price of benzene in Asia and the United States closed down, and the price of benzene in Europe closed up; In terms of supply, affected by the end of the Winter Olympic Games this week, some petroleum benzene refining and hydrobenzene units may resume normal operation, and the market supply will increase; In terms of demand, some downstream units are shut down for maintenance, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to decrease. At present, crude oil fluctuates obviously and the market trading is light. It is expected that the pure benzene market as a whole is weak, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

Overall, the supply and demand of caprolactam is still weak in the short term, and the downstream demand recovers slowly and has risk aversion. The spot price of pure benzene fell, the cost side support weakened, and the market has no positive support. It is expected that the caprolactam market may be weak this week. It is suggested to pay attention to the downstream trading, cost and on-site device dynamics.