Butanone: can we meet the inflection point at the end of the month after the sharp rise and fall?

Since the end of May, the butanone market has rebounded after bottoming out, with a huge increase. However, the downstream cost pressure has increased again, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The downstream industry starts to decline, and the butanone market is under pressure to enter the downward channel again.

The rebound time of butanone market was mainly around the Dragon Boat Festival. Before the festival, it coincided with the settlement of PetroChina manufacturers and downstream replenishment nodes at the end of the month. The factory quotation tentatively rebounded, stimulating some middlemen and downstream market purchasing. In addition, the export performance was good, the factory inventory pressure was relieved, and some orders were placed after the middle of June. After the festival, the price of butanone rose sharply again with the return of the festival. At the same time, the recovery pace of terminal demand was slow, the fear of heights in the downstream increased, the market transaction atmosphere was significantly weakened, some profit taking shipping intentions increased, and the market price began to decline rapidly. In June, the butanone market generally showed a trend of sharp rise and fall.

In the future, in terms of supply, the 40000 t / a unit of Harbin Refinery is planned to resume construction next week. Meanwhile, at the end of the month, the 40000 t / a unit of Dongming Lishu and the 30000 T / a unit of Fushun Petrochemical are planned to be stored and repaired. The start-up and shutdown of the supply side are mutually stored, which has little overall impact.

On the demand side, according to the data released by the Bureau of statistics in May, the end consumption areas of the chemical industry, such as real estate, home appliances, automobiles and other related data still perform poorly. In particular, the new construction area and completed area of real estate are still in a significant decline, which also confirms the weakness of the current demand side. Due to the weak terminal demand, the downstream adhesive, coating and other industries of butanone have a low operating load in the short term. Although it is expected to be repaired with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the increase of economic stimulus policies, it is difficult to be optimistic about the extent of improvement.

As for the cost of raw materials, up to now, the price of raw materials in Shandong market has remained high. However, due to the decline of crude oil and refined oil, the expectation of carbon 4 deposit has been lowered, and the expectation of cost side support is weak.

In the international oil market, the substantial interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the subtle changes in Russia Ukraine relations have superimposed the originally fragile demand. The expectation of international oil prices is changing in direction, and the downward volatility of oil prices tends to be obvious. Affected by the weakness of crude oil, the macro sentiment of the market is pessimistic.

Then, next week, the market will usher in the end of the month. After a sharp decline, will the butanone market usher in another inflection point? On the whole, it is expected that the butanone market will not rebound significantly at the end of last month, and the short-term market lacks upward drive, or still maintains weak operation.