Adipic acid: downward space narrowed in April, waiting for demand recovery In April, the international crude oil price showed a certain downward trend, and the price of raw material pure benzene fell

In April, the international crude oil price showed a certain downward trend, and the price of raw material pure benzene fell slightly. On April 12, the listing price of the main refinery of pure benzene decreased, weakening the cost side support for adipic acid. However, with the rapid decline in the price of adipic acid, the price difference between adipic acid and pure benzene narrowed significantly. In addition, due to the overhaul of some adipic acid plants, the start-up of the supply side decreased slightly, the bearish mentality of the operators weakened, and the market decline slowed down in April. The price fluctuation was mainly reflected in the gradual approach of the high price to the low price in the early stage.

From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the short-term impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices is weakened, and there is little possibility that oil prices will rise sharply, but oil prices will remain at a high central level in the first half of the year; The supply side of raw material pure benzene will reduce the production and ensure the price. If the international oil price is not greatly reduced, the price of pure benzene in the domestic market is also difficult to fall significantly; In terms of supply, Taihua and Jiangsu Haili units were shut down for maintenance. During the scar removal of Huafeng phase 1-4 units in turn, the starting load at the supply end decreased slightly, and the restart of subsequent units needs to be followed up; In terms of demand, the "dynamic clearing policy" is still strictly implemented in China, and the prevention and control measures for the epidemic will not be relaxed. In addition, the efficiency of local logistics and transportation is low, and the speed of overall repair is slow.

On the whole, the demand under the epidemic is poor, and the trading of adipic acid market is weakening. However, supported by the cost of raw materials, the downward space will be narrowed. In the medium and long term, with the strengthening of epidemic prevention and control throughout the country and the recovery of terminal consumption after the epidemic eased, it is expected to drive the recovery of adipic acid market. Focus on the inflection point of the follow-up epidemic and the time to return to normal.