Acetone: waiting in a stalemate

In March, due to the sluggish demand, the port inventory increased continuously, reaching above 50000 tons, which greatly suppressed the mentality of the operators, the market offer moved down rapidly, and the acetone market fell broadly; However, only two days later, with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil price rose sharply, driving the cost side to a high level. At the same time, the mentality of cargo holders was boosted, and the supply of low-cost goods in the market was reduced, while the downstream entered the market to replenish goods under the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, further stimulating the market atmosphere, making the acetone market "gorgeous turn" and rebound rapidly; In the middle of the year, with the fall of international oil prices, the support on the cost side decreased. At the same time, the domestic epidemic situation was severe again, the demand side also performed poorly, and the market focus fell somewhat; Subsequently, the acetone market began a long-term shock stalemate. Due to the repeated rise and fall of crude oil at this stage, it has different effects on the market mentality, but the crude oil is still relatively high, so the supplier is also unwilling to make the profit lower; The downstream basically maintains rigid demand consumption. Without much boost from demand, it is always difficult for the market to find an upward opportunity, so the stalemate is very obvious.

Future forecast: first of all, from the cost point of view, the trend of crude oil in the later stage is still uncertain, but because it is still in the high range, pure benzene and propylene are mostly in a volatile trend, and generally speaking, the cost level will not change much; In terms of supply, the domestic phenol ketone plant started normally in the later stage. Meanwhile, the possibility of negative increase is not ruled out in the phase II phenol ketone plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the supply is relatively sufficient on the whole; In terms of demand, as the current epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the possibility of boosting downstream demand is not ruled out, but the situation in some regions is still severe, and the space for demand improvement is expected to be limited. Generally speaking, there are still many factors affecting the acetone market next month, but it is recommended to focus on the changes of downstream replenishment cycle and crude oil fluctuation.