Acetic acid: The supply and demand pattern is weak, and the market is unlikely to improve

Acetic acid: The supply and demand pattern is weak, and the market is unlikely to improve

Under cost pressure in December, acetic acid factories were not active in production (During the month, Henan Longyu was still shut down, Nanjing Celanese and Chongqing Yangzi Acetyl were shut down for maintenance for about a week, while Huayi Shanghai, Jiangsu Thorpe and Tianjin Bohua All Yongli acetic acid plants have short-term stoppages), and the industry operating rate is only about 7.5%. But the demand side has also shrunk: PTA starts only about 6.5%, small and medium-sized downstream parking or load reduction concentration, and exports only maintain normal levels. Under the background of shrinking demand, the consumption of social stocks of acetic acid is slow. As of the end of December, the domestic inventory was about 180,000 tons, still at a moderately high level.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches in January, demand is expected to decline further: less than 70% of PTA production is expected to start, while acetate and some small downstream companies will stop production or reduce production before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, Henan Shunda has a parking plan, and Henan Longyu has not yet made any clear news. However, some acetic acid factories have obvious inventory pressure. In January, manufacturers still focus on shipments and inventory reduction. The basic pattern of oversupply remains, and it is expected that the price of acetic acid will still have room to fall in January. But at the same time, there is support from the cost side, and users may have stocking expectations before the festival, and the decline is expected to be relatively limited.