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A brief analysis of the weekly ups and downs of chemical products: crude oil fell after continuous rise, and chemical products fluctuated

Views: 0     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-10-01      Origin: Site

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A brief analysis of the weekly ups and downs of chemical products: crude oil fell after continuous rise, and chemical products fluctuated

 

During the National Day, the decision of OPEC and its allies to cut production by 2 million barrels per day continued to push up international oil prices. European and American crude oil futures rose for several consecutive days, supported by the cost side. However, under the influence of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike expectations and the risk of economic recession, crude oil ended its rally and pulled back. At the same time, downstream demand was slow to follow up, dragging down the chemical market.


TDI: The domestic phenol atmosphere has picked up this week, and the focus of discussions is on an upward trend. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory decreased compared with last week, and the atmosphere in the market rebounded. Although the listed prices of factories were lowered, the overall market atmosphere showed an upward trend. Subsequently, the billing prices of some factories increased, which boosted traders' mentality. Terminal companies entered the market cautiously, and the volume of real orders was flat; after the middle of the week, the atmosphere of speculation in the market was strong, which continued to boost the market. Continuing the price-preserving model, while petrochemical companies have collectively raised their prices again, the mentality of stockholders is clearly supported, and offers are still biased towards high-end, but downstream factories are not very motivated to follow up, and real orders are negotiated lightly; nearing the weekend, port inventories did not change much compared to the beginning of the week. , Under the high cost, the mentality of traders is well supported, coupled with the support of good news on the market, the focus of negotiations is still strong.


Aniline: In this cycle, the domestic aniline market price has risen strongly, and the international crude oil has risen sharply during the holidays, which has driven the domestic pure benzene price to rise after the festival, giving strong support to the aniline market, and the domestic aniline spot supply is in short supply, and the demand side is on the strong side. Driven by the positive, the price of aniline continued to rise. On the supply side, Jilin Cornell continues to park, Jiangsu Yangnong and Dongying Huatai load 50%, Shanxi Tianji 2 sets of 130,000 tons are scheduled to park, and Jiangsu Fuqiang, Huatai and other devices have monthly memory maintenance plans, and the expected supply in the field will decrease. Quantity, the company's spot is tight, and the shipment is better. On the demand side, downstream companies actively entered the market to purchase raw materials, domestic spot goods remained tight, factory inventories were low, and delivery was slow. In the future, pure benzene is affected by the decline of crude oil and styrene, and the current trend is weak. However, the spot supply of aniline is tight and the downstream demand is strong, and the support for the market price is relatively firm. It is expected that the domestic aniline market may continue to be strong in the next week. As of October 13, the mainstream negotiation in East China is 14050-14200 yuan/ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 13900 yuan/ton spot exchange, and 14120 yuan/ton acceptance.


Adipic acid: This week, the domestic adipic acid market rose sharply. After the holiday, boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil for several days during the holiday, the price of raw material pure benzene showed a rise. Boosted by the rise of upstream raw materials, the listing price and collection price of the adipic acid factory also increased rapidly. After the holiday, the overall start-up of the factory supply side has not changed much. There is no obvious inventory pressure on the manufacturers. The traders' attitude is improving, and they are also actively raising their quotations. The market price has risen sharply to a high of more than 11,000 yuan / ton. Enquiries in the market increased, but the mentality of high-priced purchases was still cautious. The market volume was generally average, and the focus of a small number of profit-making orders was low. Afterwards, crude oil retreated and the price of raw material pure benzene also fell, which was negative for the market sentiment. Some profit-making orders increased in shipments, and the focus of market discussions was slightly loosened and declined.


DMF: This week, the domestic DMF market fell broadly. After returning from the holiday, the factory's willingness to actively arrange warehouses is obvious, and the quotation has been reduced by a wide range, with a drop of more than 1,000 yuan. In addition, the Jiujiang Xinlianxin 100,000-ton/year plant began to offer and ship, and the supply of goods on the site increased, while the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the intention to purchase raw materials was low. Hard to say optimistic, it is expected that the short-term domestic DMF market will be weak and volatile.


EDC: In this cycle, the domestic dichloroethane (EDC) market rebounded slightly after a wide decline. The supply of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali, Jiangsu Yangnong, and Qingdao Gulf is stable, and Xinpu Chemical resumes export sales this week. The domestic supply of goods has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has increased sharply. At the beginning of the week, the market offer has been continuously lowered, and manufacturers have given profits to stimulate shipments. In the middle and late of the week, the decline rate of suppliers slowed down, and downstream users chose low prices to replenish inventories. The trading atmosphere on the market improved, and the offers of stockholders adjusted within a narrow range.


Butadiene: This cycle, the domestic butadiene market rebounded after the quotation fell, and Sinopec's supply price was lowered. The weekly internal and external market prices continued to decline, which was negative for the domestic market mentality. Sinopec's offer price was lowered three times in a row, dragging down the market's trading focus. Recently, cargoes have been arriving in Hong Kong one after another. In addition, some companies have continued to sell goods for export, and the supply side has been abundant. Some industry players are expected to be bearish in the market outlook. They generally follow the market and make offers. Not high, the overall market transaction performance is not good. Approaching the weekend, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the industry has a strong mentality, and there is no intention to sell low. Some spot offers rose slightly, but terminal inquiries continued to suppress prices, and the market trading performance was deadlocked. In the next cycle, the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant is expected to restart, and the Maoming Petrochemical plant is expected to recover in the near future, and the supply side is bearish guidance. However, the recent weak external market, coupled with the low supply price of Sinopec, is currently difficult to find good support in the field, and the terminal demand has not changed significantly. , it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will remain weak in the next cycle, and it is still necessary to pay attention to changes in equipment and downstream demand.

 

Opinion: The pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has not stopped, the epidemic has spread in many places after the National Day, the foundation for a stable recovery of the domestic economic environment needs to be further consolidated, and market expectations tend to be cautious and other pressures, resulting in a slightly bearish macro impact on chemicals. However, with the continuous support of various domestic policies to stabilize growth, the terminal demand for chemical products has recovered steadily, and there is still an expectation for further recovery of market profits.


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