Toluene xylene: high altitude is too cold to follow up with risk

Since the labor day, the domestic toluene and xylene market as a whole has maintained a continuous upward trend. Especially after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic benzene and xylene market has increased at an amazing rate. Biphenyl once reached an eight year high since the end of 2013.

On the one hand, European and American crude oil futures rose to a high of US $120 / barrel and consolidated firmly, with sound external support. On the other hand, there is a fault between the European and American markets and the Asian markets, with high arbitrage space and strong overseas demand. Chinese manufacturers and traders demand export opportunities one after another, which is the main reason for the rise of domestic toluene xylene during this period.

Recently, the toluene and xylene market rose to a high level and showed a downward trend. On June 9, the positive shipment of profit taking led to the rapid withdrawal of the market. Affected by propylene profits, the price of upstream naphtha has been relatively low for a long time, the cost side support is poor, and the PX trend of related products is weak, which has led to a setback in market confidence and more skepticism about the future trend. According to the analysis, the crude oil market will have a technical correction after the current breakthrough to the high in early March. However, there is still no key incentive for a large-scale decline. It is judged that the short-term oil price will be suppressed first and then increased. The Brent absolute price in the next cycle may be tested again at the $125 / barrel level. This also means strong support in crude oil. On the other hand, although the European and American markets have dropped to some extent, it is difficult to solve the problem of short-term supply shortage, and there is still a high price difference with the Asian market, which will certainly support the domestic toluene and xylene markets.

It is expected that the toluene and xylene markets may face phased withdrawal, but it is likely to maintain a high level for several years in June. It is recommended to continue to follow up / ship cautiously.