Methanol: the recent methanol market in North China is strong

Over the past week, the overall focus of methanol prices in North China has risen. According to the data, in the past week, the mainstream price in Hebei increased by 100-120 yuan / ton, while that in Shanxi increased by 550-140 yuan / ton. The main driving force of the recent rise comes from the smooth delivery of low-cost goods by factories in the main production areas at the beginning of last week, the low inventory, the gradual promotion of spring inspection of major devices such as Xinao, Yigao and Shanxi Huayu, and the rebound of futures prices driven by crude oil.

Although some spring inspection devices in the main production areas have been gradually implemented, at the same time, Qinghai Zhonghao has restarted the ignition in mid April, and China Coal Yuanxing, Shanxi Tongmei and Shaanxi Fugu are restarting or have start-up plans in the near future. Therefore, the impact of the reduction of spring inspection supply on the market may be reduced.

In terms of demand, the impact of the epidemic on the traditional downstream demand is obvious: under the influence of the epidemic, the poor transportation of finished products and environmental protection, the commencement of dimethyl ether, MTBE and acetic acid are at a low level. In terms of formaldehyde, although it is the traditional peak demand season, many high inventory parts of downstream plate factories have reduced negative production, which may affect the start-up of formaldehyde in the later stage. However, the start-up of olefins remains at a high level. At present, MTO remains at a high level of more than 85%, and the consumption of methanol is stable.

At present, the traditional demand is not good. Many local refining manufacturers maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and still suppress prices at low prices. Traders are also cautious, and the market trading is still average. However, with the May Day holiday approaching, the downstream is expected to have a demand for goods preparation, and under the control of the epidemic, the freight remains strong, supporting the downstream arrival cost. Moreover, the upstream temporary inventory is not high, the overall supply pressure is small, and the long and short are intertwined. It is expected that the short-term methanol market will be dominated by shocks. Boosted by the peripheral market, it is expected that the methanol market in North China will also maintain a strong consolidation.