Acrylic acid and butyl ester: ups and downs in the first half of the year, overall weakening

In the first half of 2022, except for the narrow fluctuation of propylene, the market of ester industry chain showed a downward trend. Among them, the decline of raw butanol was relatively obvious, with a decrease of 11.08%. Acrylic acid decreased by 10.08%, and butyl acrylate decreased by 1.71%. In the first half of 2022, acrylic acid in East China fluctuated above the level of 12000 yuan / ton, and the highest price appeared in mid February.

Since 2022, due to the frequent disturbance of crude oil supply expectations due to geopolitical factors such as the Russian Ukrainian war, crude oil fluctuations have been significantly dominated by supply and demand, and tight supply expectations have driven the center of gravity of crude oil prices to rise. The high crude oil level has a good support for the cost side of the chemical market. Specifically, in the first quarter, due to the extremely cold weather and the disturbance of geopolitical factors, crude oil rose strongly, WTI crude oil hit a new high in the past seven years, the domestic chemical market also showed a strong pattern following the crude oil market, the domestic acrylic acid and butyl ester Market followed the bulk commodity market, and the prices gradually rose to a high level after the factory prices rose to a high level. The average market prices of acrylic acid and butyl ester in East China in the first quarter were -5.73% and -3.24% month on month, respectively, compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.

Since mid March, the domestic epidemic has escalated, resulting in obvious phased restrictions on logistics and transportation. The overall orders of the industrial chain have declined, and the market has shifted to the dominant level of supply and demand. While the market supply is relatively abundant under the slowdown of the digestion of acrylic acid and butyl ester demand, and the domestic economic environment is depressed under the impact of the epidemic. The market from upstream raw materials, butanol to acrylic acid and butyl ester began to enter the adjustment trend in the early second quarter.

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, crude oil turned into a wide-ranging shock trend. After the stimulus factors decreased, the growth momentum of domestic demand slowed down, and the acrylate industry chain as a whole showed a significant downward trend, and the industry chain entered a downward adjustment stage. From January to may, China exported 51900 tons of acrylic acid and 130500 tons of butyl acrylate, a decrease of 1.26% and 35.92% respectively compared with the same period last year. From May to June, the domestic acrylic acid and ester prices changed rapidly, especially since June, when the market continued to decline under the weak demand improvement, the wait-and-see mentality of market participants increased, and the low prices in the market continued to emerge. Although the factory still had the intention to support the price, the market focus was mostly low in the downturn of demand.

At present, the global economy is under great pressure. In order to curb inflation, the tightening process has been continuously promoted, and the action force on commodity prices has subsided. In July, the weakness of the acrylate market remained unchanged. The acrylate market mostly fluctuated around the supply and demand side. Under the profit contraction, the production enterprises may reduce the start-up or shutdown and other actions, and the periodic market changes in the second half of the year increased. However, in the fourth quarter, Guangxi Huayi has a start-up expectation, and the production of new devices may have an impact on the supply side and mentality, so we should pay attention to the changes in market supply and demand in the later period.